After a dismal 2022, global equity markets witnessed a spectacular rally in the first half of the year.
The initial rally was driven by AI enthusiasm and Mega Cap Tech stocks. Markets extended the rally to other sectors and international equities as fears of inflation, economy, and fed action abate.
The S&P 500 increased by almost 20%, and the Nasdaq rose by 35+ YTD. However, this rally has taken a breather since the beginning of August. Both indices fell for a second week to give up some gains of the year.
Truth be told, this short pullback is rather good for the prevailing bull run as the markets head into the typically volatile months of August and September.
In the US, the critical events of the week were
- The downgrade of 10 small and midsize banks, while some large banks are still under the lens.
- Slightly below market expectation - July inflation numbers at 3.2%
- Core inflation rose by 0.2% Month on month.
- Corporate earnings in the United States have remained stagnant for a year, but the second quarter figures have surpassed low expectations.
- Consumer sentiments are relatively strong despite a slight decline in July.
Europe
European markets were flat during the week as inflationary pressures remained elevated.
The UK's economy has shown more robust growth than anticipated while the housing market continues to weaken.
In June, the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) saw a sequential growth of 0.5%, surpassing the expected 0.2% expansion. Business investment exceeded expectations, despite predictions of a slight decrease.
Asia
In July 2023, Chinese exports declined sharply by 14.5% year-over-year, reaching a five-month low of USD 281.76 billion. The decrease in export value is primarily attributed to a slowdown in global demand, which has impacted China's ability to sell its goods overseas.
Indian equities were in the red, the third week in a row, largely driven by global cues and RBI's introduction of a 10% ICRR- Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio.
Overall global markets were in the red last week. However, the outlook is still positive. This looks more like a pause than a stop of the bull run.
| NDEX |
CLOSE |
WEEK |
YTD |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
35,281 |
0.6% |
6.4% |
| S&P 500 Index |
4,464 |
-0.3% |
16.3% |
| NASDAQ |
13,645 |
-1.9% |
30.4% |
| Sensex |
65,322 |
-0.6% |
6.92% |
